Lees Ferry Fishing Report

March 9th, 2011 by Lees Ferry Anglers
Report by: Scott Sargent

Wednesday, March 9rd, 2011

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Today’s Fish rating
Upriver: 7.00
Walk-In: 7.50
Key: 1 = Go fish somewhere else
10 = Rent a helicopter and get here now!

Today’s Weather: Sunny with a high of 70 and a low of 40

Crowd Rating
Upriver: 2.0 No Crowds
Walk In: 2.0 No Crowds
Key: 1 = Sleep late and fish where you want.
10 = Very crowded, get up early

Fly Fishing:
Fishing is off the charts at the ferry.
Dry drop fishing off the slower inside seems highly productive. We’re still using a dry dropper rig. Usually a zebra midge as your dropper, usually a 4-6 foot drop with a little bit of shot depending on water flow. For the dry, we’re using any large and visible attractor.
You can sure tell that spring is here. We’ve had beautiful and perfect weather. It looks like this weather may continue for the next ten days or so. Spring is definitely here.
The warm weather has been affecting the midge hatches on the river. We’ve been seeing more and more hatches as the warm weather continues.
We’re still using eggs in some areas, but with all the midges the fish seem to be focused on what is more abundant.
The flow has been 16,000, which has been affecting the available wading areas. The reason the flows are higher because the B.O.R is attempting to equalize Lake Mead and Lake Powell. If your favorite bar is taken, you may as well begin drifting using a longer leader and a little more shot.
Every boom season that we’ve had at the ferry has been proceeded by high water flows. This is very productive for fishing the Colorado River.
If you have a car, and a day off, this is definitely the place to be for this wonderful spring weather.

Walk in: The fishing is great.
There are reports of many fish being spotted and caught. Mostly twelve to fourteen inches, but there are many large fishes visible in the water as well. This particular fisherman who made this report hooked and released at least 15 fish by noon while spin fishing. Flows are at 16,000, which are conductive to wading, and will remain at 16,000 until the 18th when the flows are to be said to increase roughly to 20,000cfs.

The nymphing is great. I was fishing a scud and dropping zebra midges, fish were going for both. Heavier tippet, longer leader, and more slip shot are definitely recommended. I was fishing the softer inside current seams and the drop offs. With the higher flow rates, the fish are closer to the banks.

Spin Fishing: Reports of good spin fishing, the lure of choice is still the panther martin in gold and black.
Anglers are also using large glo bugs, and bouncing them off the bottom. The jig has been a fun one too, seems the black ones are working best when the cast is toward the shore.

Here is a recent spin fishing report:
Hi guys. We were up there fishing on Jan 6th, 7th and 8th. We were spin fishing using glo balls we bought from your shop in pink, fluorescent green and oregon cheese colors, and we slayed em!

Bouncing the glo-balls in 10-20 feet of water at various (secret) spots on the river was the key. Hardly ever anything in less than 10 feet or over 20. Thanks for great meals and awesome glo-balls. See you again soon.

• If you have some news you would like to report about fishing lees ferry, the walk-in section or up river please e-mail your report to: anglers@leesferry.com Attn. Lees Ferry Fishing Report

• We would be happy to have your input, and pass it along.

For details on Lake Powell conditions and snow-pack, go here: http://lakepowell.water-data.com/

For a real time graphic view of water releases and ramp rates go here: http://waterdata.usgs.gov/az/nwis/uv?09380000

The AZ Game and Fish Department has detected whirling disease in a very small percentage of Lees Ferry trout that were collected for a random sampling. More recent samplings have turned up no sign of the disease, which may mean that it was a “one time” exposure, where the disease was not established or that the disease is present but at a very low prevalence. Anglers should still use caution in cleaning their equipment both before and after they have fished here or in other waters. For more information visit: http://www.whirling-disease.org

Glen Canyon Dam / Lake Powell

During December 2010 the unregulated inflow to Lake Powell was 417 kaf (96% of average). This was 57 kaf above the volume forecasted by the Colorado Basin River Forecast Center (CBRFC) on December 1, 2010 which was
360 kaf (83% of average). The elevation of Lake Powell at the end of the day on December 31, 2010 was 3626.54 feet above sea level (73.46 feet from full pool) which
corresponds to a live storage content of 14.44 maf (59.5% of capacity).

During the last half of December, precipitation within the Upper Colorado River Basin was well above average and the snowpack conditions have increased ignificantly. On December 17, 2010 the snowpack above Lake Powell was estimated to be 102% of average. By December 31, 2010 the snowpack conditions above Lake Powell had increased to an estimated 151% of average. Precipitation above Lake Powell for the first 3 months of water year 2011 has been well above average at nearly 150% of average. Based on these conditions and projected climate conditions over the next several months, the CBRFC has issued the Final Water Supply Forecast (April through July 2011 forecasted unregulated inflow volume) for Lake Powell that is well above average at 9.5 maf which is 120% of average. This forecast translates into an increase to the expected inflow to Lake Powell for water year 2011 that is more than 3 million acre-feet more than what was projected one month ago.

Operation of Glen Canyon Dam during January 2011 has been modified based on this new forecast. On Sunday January 9, 2011, releases from Glen Canyon Dam were increased to an average daily release volume of approximately 34,000 acre-feet which translates to an average daily release of 17,100 cfs. Releases are scheduled to peak for power generation during the afternoon hours for the remainder of January to 20,500 cfs. Releases during the early morning hours are approximately 12,500 cfs. The release volume for February is projected to be 981,000 kaf which the estimated capacity of Glen Canyon Powerplant under the scheduled maintenance unit outage plan with an allowance of capacity to provide spinning reserves and regulation. It is anticipated that fluctuations for power generation will be minimal in February and the estimated release rate will likely be approximately 17,600 cfs.

In addition to the daily fluctuation pattern for power generation, the instantaneous releases from Glen Canyon Dam may also fluctuate somewhat to provide approximately 40 megawatts of system regulation. These instantaneous releases adjustments maintain stable conditions within the electrical generation and transmission system and result in momentary release fluctuations within a range that is about 1100 cfs above or below the targeted release rate for a given hour of the day. These momentary fluctuations for regulation are very short lived and typically balance out over the hour. Spinning and nonspinning reserve generation is also maintained at Glen Canyon Dam. When an unanticipated electrical outage event occur within the electrical transmission system, this reserve generation at Glen Canyon Dam can be called upon up to a limit of 98 megawatts (approximately 2,600 cfs of release) for a duration of up to 2 hours. Under normal circumstances, calls for reserve generation occur fairly infrequently and are for much less than the limit of 98 megawatts.

In August of 2010, the August 2010 24-Month Study Model was used to project the January 1, 2010 elevation of Lake Powell and Lake Mead under the most probable inflow scenario. Pursuant to the Interim Guidelines and based on this August projection, the operational tier for water year 2011 was determined to be the Upper Elevation Balancing Tier. Under the Upper Elevation Balancing Tier, there is a possibility that the annual
release volume from Lake Powell could be 8.23 maf. There is also a possibility under this tier that Equalization or Balancing could occur in 2011 which would result in an annual release volume greater than 8.23 maf.

The possibility of Equalization or Balancing in 2011 is dependent on the end of water year 2011 reservoir conditions projected in the April 2011 24-Month Study under the most probable inflow scenario and with 8.23 maf projected for release from Lake Powell
during water year 2011. For this reason it will not be known for certain whether Equalization or Balancing will occur in water year 2011 until April 2011. 24-Month
Studies prior to April 2011 can project that Equalization or Balancing are likely to occur, but these projections are subject to change with changes in the forecasted hydrology of the Colorado River Basin. It is possible that a relatively small change in forecasted hydrology can have a large impact on the projected annual release volume.

The January 2011 24-Month Study with the most probable inflow scenario for water year 2011 projects that Equalization is likely to occur in 2011. For this reason, the projected most probable annual release volume for water year 2011 in the January 24-Month Study is 11.367 maf. Given the current range of uncertainty of the forecasted hydrology for water year 2011, it is possible that Balancing could also occur in water year 2011 which would result if the annual release being 9.0 maf. Each month the 24-Month Study is updated to reflect the most probable inflow scenario which is based on the most recent forecast from the Colorado River Basin Forecast Center (CBRFC). Analysis of the probable range of inflows that could occur during water year 2011 indicates that the probability of realizing an inflow volume that would trigger Equalization in 2011 is currently about 76%. This probability will be updated again during the first part of
February 2011.

The unregulated inflow forecast for Lake Powell over the next 3 months is as follows: January-380 kaf (94% of average); February-380 kaf (90% of average); March-670 kaf (101% of average). The outlook for water year 2011, incorporating this new forecast and the January Final Water Supply Forecast, the most probable unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell during water year 2011 is now 13.19 maf (110% of average). It is possible that the unregulated volume of inflow to Lake Powell in water year 2011 will be greater than or less than the most probable projection. The probable range of unregulated
inflow volumes to Lake Powell during water year 2011 is currently projected to be as dry as 8.9 maf (74% of average) to as wet as 18.6 maf (154% of average).

Upper Colorado River Basin Hydrology

In the Upper Colorado River Basin during water year 2010, the overall precipitation accumulated through September 30, 2010 was approximately 90% of average based on the 30 year average for the period from 1971 through 2000. For Water Year 2011 thus far, the estimated monthly precipitation within the Upper Colorado River Basin (above Lake Powell) as a percentage of average has been: (October - 135%, November - 95%,
December -230%) The Climate Prediction Center outlook (dated December 16, 2010) for temperature over the next 3 months indicates that temperatures in the Upper Colorado River Basin are expected to be near average while precipitation over the next 3 months is also projected to be near average.